Happy New Year!
The year 2026 began with the arrest of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting mixed global reactions. This perhaps forewarned us that this year newsrooms will be busy covering many issues from regime change to political and economic crises, natural disasters and a trade war.
Already this week, our newsroom quickly shifted focus to both regional and Myanmar news. While journalists can't foresee the future, we have our own forecasts and predictions, and we consider all possibilities and stay practical and grounded.
The Myanmar junta on Sunday pardoned thousands of prisoners to mark the country's Independence Day. We expect to see more of this pattern this year—mass releases, including more political prisoners.
Myanmar's election dominated the coverage in recent weeks, with expectations that the military-backed party would win and form a government in March—a result many view as unchanged from previous years. The regime will extend its rule through the election.
China commented positively on the first election phase, expressing hopes for "continued stability and further reconciliation" in Myanmar. We will see more Chinese involvement in the Myanmar political landscape and a resumption of Belt and Road Initiative-related projects in Myanmar.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed US support for Myanmar, urging an end to violence, humanitarian access, release of detainees and dialogue towards crisis resolution, emphasizing regional security.
The year is expected to see more prisoner releases, possibly including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the establishment of a new government. Uncertainty remains about widely condemned war criminal Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's future role, amid internal calls for his departure.
Coverage will continue of armed conflicts and potential ceasefires, especially between the military and ethnic groups, with China pressing for peace in border areas and likely sponsoring post-election ceasefires.
We plan to cover the armed conflicts and bilateral ceasefires between the Myanmar military and ethnic groups. China has pressured border groups to stop fighting and reach agreements, anticipating a government similar to Thein Sein's in the early to mid-2010s. To the regime, the fight for legitimacy—not just for survival—is now key. Myanmar's new government will seek to win back the country's UN seat, now occupied by the opposition.
Ongoing conflict is likely, with the Spring Revolution Alliance forming a joint command among forces like the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, Bamar People's Liberation Army, Chin Brotherhood, Danu People's Liberation Front/Army, the Student Armed Force, and other ethnic forces, continuing their opposition to Naypyitaw.
On the economy, Myanmar's 2026 outlook is bleak, marked by diminished growth and lost future potential. A major earthquake in March 2025 caused US$11 billion in damage according to the World Bank, redirecting limited resources away from education and health, not to mention increased and secret defense spending to quell the resistance.
The country faces an ongoing brain drain as skilled workers leave or turn to low-productivity agriculture due to a collapse in formal jobs. As of late 2025, frequent power outages affected 75 percent of firms, crippling manufacturing.
By 2026, sadly, the view of "Myanmar as failed state" has largely given way to "Myanmar as scam state". Crackdowns, like those at KK Park, often fail to dismantle core infrastructure, which simply relocates. Coordinated sanctions by the US and UK in late 2025 have further isolated legitimate trade by deterring international banking activity. Our team is focused on the conflict driven economy and rare earths.
Regarding the latter, our attention will shift particularly to Kachin and Shan states.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' response to the establishment of new military-backed governments in the past has always been inadequate, while the UN has always been predictable, releasing an endless stream of expressions of "concern". These weak responses have been compounded recently by Western aid cuts. The Philippines will chair ASEAN this year, after Malaysia actively engaged multiple stakeholders in Myanmar in 2025, so the focus will shift to Manila's stance. Thailand's upcoming election in February may impact its border issues with Cambodia but its policy on Myanmar is not concrete. Millions of people from Myanmar have sought refuge in Thailand, especially since the coup, with many continuing to leave.
All in all,
Myanmar citizens deserve more after living through five dark years.
It will be a busier year than the last.
Thank you for being a pillar of support for The Irrawaddy throughout 2025.
Aung Zaw / Founder and editor-in-chief of The Irrawaddy.
